Barclays Boosts Tesla Price Estimate to $350 Ahead of Q3 Results

Key Highlights:

• Barclays has lifted its price forecast for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares from $275 to $350, reaffirming a neutral "Equal Weight" stance.
• The adjustment is driven by growing enthusiasm around Tesla’s AI and autonomous tech initiatives, though fundamentals remain a concern.
• Analysts anticipate a Q3 earnings beat, supported by stronger vehicle deliveries and improved margins.

Barclays has updated its outlook on TSLA, raising its Tesla price target from $275 to $350 while keeping its "Equal Weight" rating unchanged. The move comes just before Tesla’s Q3 earnings release, as the company faces a divided market narrative.

Dan Levy, Barclays analyst, pointed out that Tesla is riding a wave of optimism due to its AI and autonomous vehicle ambitions, largely fueled by CEO Elon Musk’s proposed compensation package. At the same time, Levy cautioned that Tesla’s underlying financial performance isn’t as robust, prompting a more reserved outlook. "We remain neutral to slightly bearish heading into the Q3 report," he noted.

AI narrative fuels investor interest

Tesla’s growing focus on artificial intelligence is central to the current investor sentiment. The company’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and its humanoid robot, Optimus, are being pitched as transformative projects. Elon Musk has consistently spotlighted these initiatives as key to Tesla’s future, drawing support from industry giants like Nvidia.

ELON MUSK — Once production hits 1M units annually, Optimus will likely be priced between $20K–$25K. pic.twitter.com/NaEyqZz7F5

— Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) October 4, 2025

Despite the excitement, Barclays emphasized that these projects are still in early stages and haven’t yet contributed meaningful revenue. Similarly, BNP Paribas Exane has flagged concerns about the speculative nature of Tesla’s valuation, pointing out that products like Robotaxi and Optimus, though central to long-term projections, currently generate no sales.

TSLA has been significantly underperforming the S&P 500 index in 2025 so far.

Mixed signals heading into earnings

Barclays expects Tesla to surpass expectations in Q3, citing higher delivery volumes and stronger-than-anticipated gross margins. The company is also set to benefit from recent tariff adjustments in the U.S., as all vehicles sold domestically are produced within the country.

Institutional sentiment toward Tesla remains broadly positive. The past quarter saw a 2.9% increase in institutional holdings, while average portfolio exposure to TSLA climbed by over 3%. Options activity also signals optimism, with a put/call ratio of 0.86.

Even so, the overall analyst consensus remains cautious. As of late September, the average 12-month price target for Tesla stood at $332.54, about 24% below its then-current trading price of $438. Forecasts range widely, from as low as $19.24 to as high as $630 per share, highlighting ongoing market uncertainty.

TSLA to $600? Algorithmic forecast proposes bullish scenario

According to the algorithmic TSLA stock forecast on CoinCodex, the outlook for Tesla is strongly bullish, with the stock projected to climb to around $600 by November, a gain of 37.6% from its current level.

While the forecast expects a correction after reaching that peak, the CoinCodex Tesla prediction suggests TSLA will close the year near $526, marking a still-impressive 20.6% rise compared to its current price.

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